2024 NFL Draft Special
+Mock Draft
Welcome back!
One of my favorite Football events is less than a week away, and I’ve never spent more time on a Draft than this one so I’m very excited. Betting the NFL draft is completely different than normal sports betting, instead of analyzing player matchups and schemes, it’s pure informational warfare. Nobody wants their player taken higher than the agents, so trying to sift through information and determine what is a legit report or a smokescreen is the name of the game. Using a combination of studying the combine, scouting reports, interviews, rooster needs and player visits I think we can approach next Thursday confidently.
But first let’s recap last weekend’s UFC 300, one of the best cards I’ve ever seen.
UFC 300 Recap:
Straight Bets:
Alex Pereira ML ✅
Diego Lopes ML ✅
Parlay/Round Robin:
Kayla Harrison ML ✅
Arman Tsarukyan ML ✅
Weili Zhang ML ✅
Jalin Turner ML ❌
DFS:
Holloway Rivals +6.5 Significant Strikes ✅
Cody Garbrandt +10.5 Rivals Significant Strikes ✅
Arman Tsarukyan Higher 35.5 Significant Strikes ✅
Weili Over 3.5 Takedowns ✅
Pereira Higher 0.5 Finishes ✅
Jalin Turner Higher 37.5 Significant Strikes ❌
Kayla Harrison Lower 45.5 Significant Strikes ❌
Bo Nickal Lower 4 Mins Fight Time ❌
The night went mostly as expected. Alex and Diego won easily in the 1st round. It would have been a monster night had Jalin Turner showed up a little more, especially when he dropped Mociano in the 1st round. I over estimated his training in Dubai with Coach Oz to keep the fight standing, but all in all I’m happy with the outcome of everything we talked about in the newsletter. We underperformed slightly on DFS, but we will look to bounce back next weekend on a much smaller card that should be ripe with opportunity.
NFL Draft 2024
Best Bet:
Player Position Drafted: Michael Penix Over 32.5 (+140 Ceasars)
I'm actually a fan of Michael Penix, pictured above is him freestyling about coming back on Oregon, which he did! But I don't see him going in the first round. A large part of this bet hinges on my Raiders taking him in the first round, but I just don't see it. While he would be a nice addition to the quarterback room, I'm not sure he is head and shoulders better than AOC or Minshew and worthy of first-round value. It's more likely we trade up and take Jayden Daniels somehow than end up with Penix.
Some other concerns: Michael Penix has had his season ended four times due to injury! He is also a left-handed quarterback, which requires some offensive scheme adjustments.
Penix is this year's Hendon Hooker I'm afraid. For those unfamiliar, Hendon was getting mocked in the first round last year and fell all the way to the third round. I think Penix is in a similar situation. If the Raiders grab him in the second round, I think that's great, but with so many other needs I just can't see us taking him in the first round. I’ve been hammering this bet and have over $500 invested so far.
Player Position Drafted: Quinyon Mitchell Over 13.5 (-220 Ceasars)
Another great player, but I think this slot is just too early for him. The 13.5 number once again hinges on where my Raiders are picking, at 13. While we would like another corner I think we will address the offensive line as it is a bigger need. Also, Head Coach of the Raiders Antonio Pierce visited the Alabama Pro Day and seemed to be getting along great with Terrion Arnold, the other highly touted CB in this year's draft. I see two very easy ways he is not taken this early.
Player Position Drafted: Jordon Morgan Over 32.5 (+100 Ceasars)
While Jordan Morgan is a great player, I think this is the deepest offensive tackle draft I've ever seen. I have Morgan ranked as my 9th best tackle and just missing the first round.
Most respected mock drafters do not have him the first round anymore as well.
High Probability/High Juice:
Team First Position Drafted: Saints-Offensive Line (-350 Ceasars)
The NFL Draft is interesting to bet on, because once you know something is certain, laying the high odds (juice) doesn't matter as much. The Saints will absolutely take a tackle first as they are in dire need.
Pictured above is Ryan Ramczyk, the Saint’s premiere offensive tackle who recently as of this off season might be forced to medically retire. On top of a already pressing need, they need to take advantage of the deep offensive line talent in this draft. I can tell you from first hand experience, Saint’s QB Derek Carr, thrives best when not under pressure giving them even more reason to take a tackle here.
Favorite Longshot:
Team First Position Drafted: Dallas Cowboys-Linebacker (+550 Fanduel)
The Dallas Cowboys are interesting, in the serious mock drafting circles they are known for tipping their draft strategy hand with 1 on 1 player visits. Pictured above is Edgerrin Cooper, this years top linebacker who the Cowboys brought in for a visit. They have brought in other linebackers as well showing they absolutely will be addressing this position in the draft. And with the class being very light on linebacker, they may opt to take the best one early and get a tackle later where it is really deep.
Why else would the Cowboys want a premier linebacker? Their run defense was swiss cheese last year, ranking 18 out of 32 in rushing yards allowed. Longtime Linebacker Captain Leighton Vander Esch also medically retired this off season that also serves as a big hole to fill.
Credit to this one goes to the 4for4 guys who brought it to my attention.
Picks From a Previous Newsletter:
Team First Drafted Position: Detroit Lions-Cornerback (+130 Ceasars)
Team First Drafted Position: LA Chargers Wide Receiver (+180 Fanduel)
I still like both these picks, since writing this I believe the Lions traded for Carlton Davis from the Buccaneers, but most mock drafters and I still have them going Corner first as it was a huge need last year, they’re team was absolutely complete last year outside of the leagues worst secondary unit. The Chargers are very interesting, they currently have one of the lightest and weakest receiver corps after shipping away Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, but head coach Jim Harbaugh has dropped a lot of hints about offensive line being the most important group in the game. Having said that, I can totally see them trading back at the #5 pick and getting both positions later on. If you haven’t played it already I would skip it or just sprinkle, they may be too tempted to pass on Malik Nabers.
2024 Mock Draft
Here is my mock draft, I did it with no trades being done which is unlikely but personally my board looks like this.
That’s all for now. Have an amazing week. Stop by the Discord this week as I may post plays there later, it is said the closer we get to draft day the more accurate the information becomes.
Can’t wait for next season :D