NFL Sunday Picks
Week 14 🏈
Welcome back,
We had a near miss on Thursday with Gibbs falling 7 yards short. Let’s make up for it this weekend.
Previous Newsletter Recap
Best Bet: 2 Leg Parlay - Jahmyr Gibbs 50 Rushing Yards / Josh Jacobs 50 Rushing Yards ❌ (Jacobs finished with 66, Gibbs 43)
Best Bet Record: 16-11 (13-9 NFL, 2-3 UFC)
Total Units Risked: 10u
Total Profit/Loss: -10u🔻
Season Profit/Loss: -35.94u🔻
Sucks, no way around it. Determind to turn the ship around, we will finish green or -100u no inbetween. We just need a little more from our guys on these big plays.
NFL Sunday
Best Bet: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110 HardRock)
Risk 15u to win 13.63u
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a receiver I think a lot of people may not be familiar with, but he's been a great number two option for the Tennessee Titans this year. He's scored a touchdown in eight of the last nine games for the Tennessee Titans, showing that he's trusted by the team. He led the team last week in targets with eight, even more than Calvin Ridley, who we'll talk about in the next segment. But as you can see here, he's over this line in four of the past five games, and he gets our favorite matchup to target this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jacksonville Jaguars are by far and away the worst pass defense in the entire NFL. They average 273 yards to opposing quarterbacks, so they've been getting just destroyed all year through the air, and I think that'll continue here again in this divisional matchup.
Listen to HC Brian Callahan rave about him:
“Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a guy that I point to for everybody. He does it the right way every time. He blocks his tail off in the run game. He’s so sound and knows where to go all the time. When the ball is in the air, he makes plays. Everything about his approach and professionalism is what you want, you want as many of those guys as you can find.
“He just continues to keep making plays. We keep throwing him the ball if he’s making plays.”
Case closed.
Best Bet: Calvin Ridley Longest Reception Over 25.5 Yards (-110 HardRock)
Risk 10u to win 9.09u
Staying in the same game, we're going to take a look at Calvin Ridley. Calvin Ridley I think is also good to go over his receiving total, but I also really like this look here for longest reception. As we've talked about before, the Jaguars are the worst pass defense by far in the entire NFL. It's because they allow a lot of explosive plays. As we've also talked about before, they play a lot of man coverage with maybe not the most talented corners, and that leaves them vulnerable to the big play. Will Levis as shown that he can be somewhat of a gunslinger, and he's not afraid to give his guys a chance.
And then finally we have the revenge angle. We saw what Jerry Jeudy did to his old team, where he broke a career high against his old team last Thursday. I think motivations are a little higher when you play a former team that lets you go, so I really like Calvin Ridley to have a great game here.
Jakobi Meyers Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110 HardRock)
Risk 5u to win 4.54u
Jakobi Meyers over 63.5 receiving yards is a great look this week. He absolutely destroyed this line when we had him last week, and I think he's going to do the same thing again. Last week against the Chiefs, he actually had a tough matchup, and he soared over this line, almost getting 100 receiving yards. This week, he has an extremely favorable matchup. 30 out of 32 is what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank in passing defense this year, averaging 258 yards to opposing quarterbacks a game. I do think the path to victory here is going to be through the air.
With Vita Vea up front and our run game not doing that great this year with moving a lot of guys and pieces around I think we're going to be chucking the ball here a lot, and there's only two options for the Raiders, Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers. So, I like both these guys to have a huge game, and 63.5 is still too low for Jakobi Meyers, who has looked quite good since Davante Adams left. We will make a big play on Brock Bowers soon, but his posted lines are out of this orbit currently, and rightfully so.
2 Leg Parlay: Chris Boswell Over 1.5 Field Goals, Myles Garret Over 2.5 Tackles & Assists (+160 HardRock Bet)
Risk 5u to win 8u
The Pittsburgh Steelers, because of their playstyle of running the ball right up the middle over and over again, even when it's not the most efficient method of moving the ball, is why I love Myles Garrett to go over here. There's literally no better team to target for defensive line production than the Pittsburgh Steelers, averaging 22 tackles a game to opposing defensive linemen. Myles Garrett is one of the frontrunners for Defensive Player of the Year. He already made a statement last time they played, but he may be looking to do the same thing again. He had five tackles and assists last time they played, and two and a half here I think is a really low number in this great matchup.
And Chris Boswell, we've talked about him before. He's been super reliable for us, probably the best kicker in the league this year along with Brandon Aubrey. He seems to always get his opportunities for field goals, and he never misses when given the chance. He covered against the Browns last time in that snow blizzard game as well, so he's got an incredible leg, incredible range, and nerves of steel. The Browns are going to play hard in this divsional matchup, and if the Steelers offense stalls on their side of the field, look for Boswell to send it through the uprights.
Total Units Risked: 33u
Have a great weekend!
I will post a Underdog Rivals slip and Longshot Lottery tonight or tomorrow in the free Discord.
This is the weekend! Bring us the green! 💚✅🎄🤑🔫🍀🌲🌴