NFL Sunday Week 1
Starting off right ✅
Welcome back, everyone!
It is so great to have football back in our lives. It truly is one of the best aspects of American culture and life.
We kicked off the Week 1 newsletter with a clean sweep on the Thursday and Friday slate—what a great way to start the NFL season.
Previous Newsleter Recap
Best Bet: Mercole Hardman Under 9.5 Receiving Yards ✅
Xaviery Worthy Over 45.5 Receiving Yards & Over 20.5 Longest Reception ✅
Darius Slay Under 4.5 Tackles & Assists ✅
Total Units Risked: 4.25u
Total Profit/Loss: +3.42u 💹
Season Profit/Loss: +3.42u 💹
The best bet for the opening night game cashed with ease. That was a nice, easy max play that hit right away to start the season. In the Brazil game, Darius Slay recorded only 3 tackles and assists, falling short of his stated line of 4.5. As we feared, Xavier Worthy is already a phenom in the NFL, and he wrecked the game for the Ravens. He cashed both his props with 47 receiving yards and a 36-yard bomb. So, excellent reads right away. Let's hope we can continue the streak into the weekend.
In our last newsletter, we risked a total of 4.25 units and profited 3.42 units. So, if you're a $100 unit bettor, you made $342—congratulations on a great opening in the NFL! For a deeper explanation of unit betting, check out this video. Essentially, it's a way for people with different starting bankroll sizes to measure their bets relatively.
In addition to the newsletter plays, we also had Dontayvion Wicks Under 2.5 Receptions tonight that was posted this morning in the Discord. So make sure you're following that if you want plays as quickly as they come out. If not, the best of thoose will always be published here later on.
Week 1 Picks
Best Bet: CJ Mosley Over 6.5 Tackles & Assists (-145 Draftkings)
1u to win .69u
(Playable at 7.5 Tackles/Assists at +110 Draftkings)
(Forgive me as the lines keeps bouncing back and forth between 6 and 7, I like both but obviously we want to try and target 6.5. Just keep checking today until kickoff.)
This is the lowest line I've ever seen for CJ Mosley, and I doubt it'll be this low again all season. Mosley is the middle linebacker and captain of the New York Jets defense, and this matchup really plays to his strengths. The San Francisco 49ers can be a run-heavy team, or they might attack the middle of the field in the passing game—both areas where Mosley thrives. He's usually a double-digit tackle player, so getting him at 6.5 is a must-play. I really love this look to close out the opening weekend slate and Monday Night Football.
Best Bet: Bobby Wagner Over 7.5 Tackles & Assists (-135 Draftkings)
.5u to .37u
(Playable at 8.5 Tackle & Assists +100 Draftkings)
(Forgive me as the lines keeps bouncing back and forth between 7 and 8, I like both but obviously we want to try and target 7.5)
During the 2023 season, the Washington Commanders were one of the worst defenses in the NFL, giving up the most passing yards and some of the most rushing yards per game to opposing teams. In an effort to fix their defense, they signed Bobby Wagner in the offseason, the new commander-in-chief, if you will. And this line is simply too low for Bobby Wagner, 7.5 tackles and assists. Bobby Wagner usually sails past this line, and he's only missed it a couple times last year. He usually is a double-digit tackle guy, and in a commander's defense that's, I don't think, all that improved, I still think the Bucs will be able to move on him and keep the defense on the field, giving Bobby lots of opportunities for tackles. 7.5 is simply too low for a player of Bobby's caliber, despite him being a little older.
Derrick Brown Over 4.5 Tackles & Assists (-120 Draftkings)
1u to win .833u
This is one of the best lines on the defensive side of the ball for opening weekend: Derek Brown, defensive lineman for the Carolina Panthers. His line is set at 4.5, and it's simply too low. If you look at his chart, he rarely finishes with fewer than four tackles, having failed to meet this line only four times last season. He's almost always good for five or more. The last time he played the Saints, he had 10 tackles, and in the two matchups before that, he recorded 7 in each. He's very capable of hitting this line, and I think this will be the last time we see Derek Brown at such a low number. Huge thanks to Ryan Noonan from 4for4 for finding this one
Cody Barton Over 7.5 Tackles & Assists (-135 Draftkings)
.5u to win .38u
In an effort to fix one of the league's worst defenses from last year, the Denver Broncos signed Cody Barton from the Washington Commanders. Barton saw plenty of tackle opportunities as a middle linebacker for Washington, and I think he'll have similar volume with the Broncos, especially in this matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. Denver's defense is still shaky, so I expect them to be on the field for long drives. Combined with an offense being led by a rookie with a weak supporting cast, I think the defense is going to be on the field often. This will give Cody Barton plenty of opportunities for tackles, especially with RB Kenneth Walker likely to play a major role in Seattle's offense. Seattle has more firepower and experience and an amazing new headcoach, if they start to pull away on the Broncos, expect to see lots of Cody Barton on the field getting tackles as the Seahawks try to run out the clock.
Jameson Williams Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-120 Draftkings)
.5u to win .41u
Ready to have some fun? Next up, we have a newsletter favorite: Jameson Williams over 37.5 receiving yards, and we're going to ladder it up to 90, just in case (hehe). With the departure of Craig Reynolds in the offseason and Jameson Williams being named the most improved player in Lions training camp, we believe this is finally the breakout season for him. We'll be taking full advantage of this in his matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, who lost several key defensive players, including defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, Aaron Donald, and captain Ernest Jones. With a weakened defense, Williams seems to be making all the right strides, and I like him to hit 37 yards easily in this new full time role.
Total units risked: 3.16
That’s all for now. Welcome back everyone to the wonderful roller coaster ride known as football. Best of luck with all your plays. The rocket ship newsletter is following closely behind…. 🍻