Welcome back,
Last week went well in both UFC and NFL. It feels like, with the NFL, there is less randomness, and teams’ motives/patterns are becoming easier to see. This isn’t the start I envisioned, but I think we can catch up—and even surpass—the market average for this space of, what should we call it, private handicappers vs. “the books.”
And just like in the NFL, it’s not who starts the season well that wins the Super Bowl, but who plays well down the stretch.
Previous Newsletter Recap
UFC 309
Best Bet: Bo Nickal + Paul Criag Over 1.5 Rounds ✅ (Fight Went The Distance)
Best Bet: Jon Jones Vs Stipe Miocic Under 2.5 Rounds ❌ (Finished at 2.9 rounds)
NFL Week 11
Best Bet: Jameson Williams Over 42.5 Receiving Yards ✅ (Finished with 124!)
Best Bet: 2 Leg Parlay - Houston Texans -2.5 & Detroit Lions -6.5 ✅ (Both won in blowouts)
Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns ❌ (Finished with 0)
Best Bet Record: 13-7 (10-6 NFL, 2-2 UFC)
Total Units Risked: 48u
Total Profit/Loss: +1.63u
Season Profit/Loss: -27.72u🔻
Now, I know what you’re thinking: we didn’t turn in a huge profit this week, so why would I be in good spirits? It’s important to keep in mind that the Jon Jones-Stipe under bet was the biggest in newsletter history, and despite missing that, we nailed just about everything else and still finished ahead.
The Jon Jones play barely missed, and that alone was a 34-unit swing. We would have erased the entire season’s deficit in one swoop. And the play was so painfully close. The read was spot on, as Jon Jones dismantled Stipe, much in the same way Jake Paul beat up on a 58-year-old Tyson. I thought Jon was two elbows away from a TKO victory in Round 1, and in Round 3, he had Stipe rocked right before the 2.5-round mark. Of course, he finished Stipe in the round we needed—but two minutes too late.
The Bo Nickal fight went exactly as predicted. Jamo had the best day of his career (in the Discord, we played him up to 100+ yards for +800 odds), and the Texans and Lions both dismantled their opposition as expected.
The only other play that missed last week was Russell Wilson. He didn’t throw for any touchdowns, but he had three very good red-zone opportunities that they just couldn’t convert on, settling for field goals instead.
Win or lose, we move on to Thursday.
Thursday Night Football
Best Bet: Jamies Winston Over 211.5 Passing Yards (-115 HardRock)
☢️Risk 23u to win 20u ☢️
https://rotogrinders.com/weather/nfl
Linked above is the best reporting tool I use to analyze how weather will impact a play. This is going to be a variable to consider in our plays tonight. I recommend following it daily and checking the forecast in Cleveland. As it stands, it seems like the weather may be slightly overstated—wind doesn’t seem to be a big issue. Of course, if rain or snowfall occurs, that will affect plays, but it’s looking light at the moment.
Despite being the 3rd-string QB on the Browns' roster to start the year, Jameis Winston is an exciting player who has breathed life into this locker room and fan base. Jameis might throw for 400 yards, but he also might give up an interception or two in the process. He has a high risk tolerance, and that’s why we love him. Jameis has had over 40 pass attempts in each of his starts, and I don’t think that will slow down here.
The Steelers are a fantastic rush defense, ranking 6th out of 32 teams in the NFL, allowing only 90 rushing yards per game. However, they rank 18th in passing defense, allowing an average of 214 yards per game. It’s not quite enough to call them a pass-funnel defense, as they are solid on both fronts, but the path to victory is certainly through the air.
Assuming the weather doesn’t have a huge impact, 211 yards for a gunslinger like Jameis Winston in a matchup where they must pass to succeed feels right.
2 Leg Parlay: Chris Boswell Over 1.5 Field Goal & TJ Watt Sack (+195 Fliff)
Risk 3u to win 5.8u
These next two guys are consistent variables for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
If the classic Jameis Winston we are used to drops back 40 times looking for the deep play, trying to make something happen, eventually he’s going to get caught up—and who better than perennial finalist for Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt to get the job done?.T.J. has had games with 4 sacks against the Browns in years past, and all we need is one here.
Chris Boswell is a kicking machine for the Steelers, especially in divisional matchups like this one. AFC North football is tough—defenses play hard, and teams aren’t shy about running the ball. As we saw last week against the Ravens, Boswell put up 6 field goals. Along with Brandon Aubrey, he is one of the elite kickers in the league. The Browns have only allowed opponents to average 1.9 field goals per game, but as you can see above, more often than not, the Steelers are sending Boswell out there, and his range is well into the deep 50s.
Again, if the weather is severe, that will impact things, so stay tuned. But as it stands right now, I like this small parlay in addition to our big Jameis Winston play.
Total Units Risked: 25u
Best of luck see you Friday!