Welcome back!
Big UFC 314 card this weekend! This card is interesting because I think every fight on the main card is a toss-up, which is very rare. Because of that, I have 3 underdog plays I really like.
I’ll have some more plays later in the week but want to get these 3 out before weekend money comes in.
Previous Newsletter Recap:
❌ Best Bet: 2 Leg Parlay - Gunnar Nelson & Carlos Ulberg Moneyline (+144 Ceasars)
Best Bet Record: 0-1
Total Record: 1-2
Total Units Risked: 2u
Total Profit/Loss: -2u
Season Profit/Loss: -2u
Tough break on our London card play, both fights were close and I thought we cleared on both sides, but the judges didn’t agree on the Gunnar Nelson fight. He controlled 2 rounds and was winning round 1 until he got caught with 10 seconds left. Moving on.
UFC 314
Diego Lopes Moneyline (+110 Ceasars)
Risk 1u to win 1.1u
The main event is going to be a very close and exciting fight between two great fighters. Volkanovski has had a great career, but I think he is past his peak, and Lopes, on the other hand, is on the rise as a hungry contender. This feels like a changing of the guard type of fight. I think this fight plays out more on the feet, and while Volk has technically sound kickboxing, I think the speed, aggression, and pressure of Lopes’ strikes will be too much for Volk. I think this goes late / to the distance.
Dominick Reyes Moneyline (Caesars +150)
Risk 1u to win 1.5u
In the main card opener, we have a very curious fight between Dominick Reyes and Nikita Krylov.
Both fighters are in the latter half of their careers, but I think Reyes has more juice left and can still be dangerously explosive. Krylov, at this point, relies on being technically sound and strong in the grappling and cage control departments. I think Reyes has shown decent grappling instincts with his athleticism and can keep this fight where he wants to, and will outmatch and outpace a battle-fatigued Krylov.
Bryce Mitchell Moneyline (+205 Caesars)
Risk 1u to win 2.05u
This is going to be an excellent fight and the most traditional style clash of pure striker vs. pure grappler. Both fighters have been very consistent so far in their careers and have shown great strengths in the other’s opposite.
Jean Silva has been stopping everyone with heavy punches and slick boxing, while Bryce most recently beat world champion jiu-jitsu player Kron Gracie at his own game.
This fight comes down to the takedown, and Jean has shown he can be taken down in his previous fights. Bryce on top of Jean can be trouble for Silva, despite Jean coming from a gym with great grapplers himself in the Fighting Nerds.
I think we are getting good value here on Bryce, and this is a perfect spot to fade the Jean Silva hype train.
That’s all for now.
See you later in the week, hope it goes well!