Hello and welcome!!!
In my opinion, this is one of the best fight cards of the year, featuring one of the best main event fights of all time. And I don’t throw around the “all-time” tag often. The marquee matchup between DDP and Khamzat is excellent. Both guys are undefeated in the UFC and at the absolute peak of their careers. In addition, their styles combine for a very fun and competitive fight.
There are fewer lopsided favorites on this card (finally) and all the fights are very even and competitive. However, there are 5 spots on this card I absolutely love.
Let’s get right to it.
Previous Newsletter And Discord Recap:
UFC Fight Night - Taira Vs Park
Best Bet: 2 Leg Parlay - Mateusz Rębecki & Rinya Nakamura Moneyline (-121 Caesars)
Units PnL: -10u
Best Bet Record: 5-3
Total Record: 11-6
Total Units Risked: 10u
Total Profit/Loss: -10u
Season Profit/Loss: +5.79u 💹
We have had a tough streak of close decisions not going our way. Our bet of the summer came as close as can be to hitting, Rinya Nakamura dominated but ultimately the judges did not see it the same in the second fight with Rebecki and Duncan. I don’t believe it was a robbery—it was a close fight—but Rebecki deserved it in my opinion as he outlanded, outwrestled, and outcontrolled Chris Duncan. Unfortunately, I think Duncan wore the damage on his face better, and that’s ultimately what did us in.
Moving on 🫡.
UFC 319
5 Leg Parlay (Caesars +707)
Risk 1u to win 7.07u
Khamzat Chimaev Moneyline
Aaron Pico Moneyline
Carlos Prates Moneyline
Michael Oleksejczuk Moneyline
Loopy Godinez Moneyline
2 Leg Parlay – Khamzat + Oleksejczuk (+106 Caesars)
Risk 1u to win 1.06u
2 Leg Parlay – Loopy Godinez + Aaron Pico (+169)
Risk 1u to win 1.69u
These 5 fights I love. Feel free to break it down into smaller parlays. I personally did as well, but you can mix and match as you feel, or round robin the 5 fights.
Let’s go fight by fight.
Khamzat Chimaev vs Dricus du Plessis – You have all heard the same breakdown all week. If Khamzat can blitz Dricus, it’s over; if Dricus survives the early onslaught, it’s his to take.
Elite grappler vs well-rounded, unorthodox, strong power striker.
Instead, I’m going to maybe illuminate some new information. According to Arman Tsarukyan, Khamzat has been over trained for all his previous fights, and this is the first time he is monitoring recovery rates. Khamzat trained with Coach Cal this camp, the most popular strength and conditioning coach in the MMA world today. Also, some of his gas problems were at welterweight with a weight cut. I think the gas tank narrative may be slightly overstated and, in addition, it seems he has course-corrected.
Daniel Cormier said this is the strongest he has ever felt Khamzat feel. And Khamzat seems mentally in a very good place this fight. I don’t like DDP’s camp underplaying Khamzat and saying this will be an easy fight and this and that.
This is a close fight on paper, but I like The Borz, The Wolf, in this world-class matchup.
Aaron Pico vs Lerone Murphy – This is a very, very intriguing matchup. Undefeated Lerone Murphy is the underdog to UFC newcomer Aaron Pico. MMA diehards will know Aaron Pico as he has been quite dominant outside the UFC.
Lerone is much like fellow countryman Leon Edwards—a very well-moving technical kickboxer who is capable everywhere and usually fights to decision.
However, Aaron Pico is a wrestling legend in California. Me and Aaron both wrestled in CIF, the California high school division for wrestling. California isn’t the pinnacle wrestling state in the United States—that honor goes to probably Iowa or Pennsylvania—however, on the West Coast, due to its sheer mass number of competitors, it is the best on the west side of our country. To even qualify for the tournament is difficult. To win it? Extremely difficult. To go undefeated the entire season and win? Absolutely incredible. And after high school, Pico decided to skip college and go right to the Olympic trials where he made it to the finals and lost by an extremely close margin, just missing the team. Aaron has wrestled on the international circuit against some of the best wrestlers on the planet. He is an elite wrestling talent.
On top of that, he trained for a very long time at the most famous boxing gym in LA—Wildcard with Freddie Roach. Pico has had amazing exposure to some of the best boxers in the world and would even be a sparring partner at times.
All this to say, the big knock on Pico is his level of competition in Bellator, but that aside, he has an elite skill set and, believe it or not, is 6 years younger than Lerone Murphy.
I’m going to go out on a big limb—I think Pico dominates. Josh Emmett was able to take Murphy down easily, and Pico is many levels better than him. I love Pico in this matchup. Murphy has never faced an elite wrestler like this.
And if you’re banking on the Bellator lower-level argument, did Kayla Harrison or Reinier de Ridder have those issues when they signed with the UFC? Is it an absolute narrative? I think not.
Carlos Prates vs Geoff Neal – Two dangerous strikers going at it. Playing these fights is usually dangerous because striking matchups are volatile and anyone can clip anyone. Once again, we will be taking the youthful contender vs the seasoned veteran. But it’s not just that—I identified one trend in Geoff Neal’s record that was very telling.
Geoff has losses to Stephen Thompson, Ian Garry, Neil Magny, Kevin Holland, and Shavkat Rakhmonov. What do all of these people have in common? Long and rangy strikers. That’s exactly what Prates is as well. Geoff needs to do work in the pocket, and if Prates can maintain distance with his reach advantage, I love him in this matchup.
Michael Oleksejczuk vs Gerald Meerschaert – Classic matchup between striker vs grappler. Both excel where the other struggles. Gerald is not good on the feet, and Michael is not good on the ground. I like Michael here because he recently changed camps to The Fight Nerds, a high-level gym with great Brazilian strikers and grapplers alike. Michael is also much younger and has dangerous hands, and his transition to a higher-level gym I think can shore up the grappling deficit enough to beat the much more seasoned veteran Gerald Meerschaert, who hasn’t looked great as of late.
Loopy Godinez vs Amanda Andrade – This is the story of youth vs experience. Loopy is a contender with good wrestling, grappling, and boxing. Andrade is a tough veteran who loves to brawl. Andrade has had a long career at this point, and after hitting her peak by winning the title, I think she is on her way down. Loopy has the perfect skill set to win. Andrade struggles with takedown defense and was recently outgrappled by Jasmine Jasudavicius. Loopys style is similar to Jasmines. It seems like Andrade may not have it anymore and Loopy is hungry and has the tools to get the job done. Loopy’s sister wrestled for Mexico on the national team, and if she leans into her wrestling background, the path to victory is clear.
Total Units Risked: 7u
Best of luck tomorrow!