Welcome back everyone,
We had ourselves a day in the last newsletter and outside of DFS we did very well and nailed all our projections.
This Fight Night isn’t as attractive to me, there isn’t a whole lot of spots i like but there is one I feel quite good about it.
Previous Newsletter Recap - UFC 302
Best Bet: Islam Makhachev & Jailton Almeida Parlay ✅
Prop Based DFS:
Strickland Higher Significant Strikes/Fight Time ✅
Ailin Perez Higher Fight Time ✅
Niko Price Significant Strikes +11.5 Rivals ✅
Oleksiejczuk Under 0.5 Finishes ✅
Kopylov -0.5 Significant Strikes Rivals ❌
Dawson Lower 35.5 Significant Strikes ❌
Almeida Rivals Significant Strikes -4.5/Higher 3.0 Takedowns ❌
Draftkings Cash Tournament ✅ ($15 entry won $50)
We finally won one of those DraftKings Cash Tournaments, and our best bet cashed with relative ease. DFS actually didn’t do horrible, but i combined them wrong as Jailton absolutely steamrolled Roman and blew my entries.
I also had this last second entry in the Discord that hit. Make sure your hanging out there for last minute plays that the newsletter might miss.
UFC Fight Night Picks: Cannonier Vs Imavov
Best Bet: Eduarda Moura Moneyline (-192 Draftkings)
Film is limited on this fight, but I think we have a pretty decent sized mismatch here. Eduarda is undefeated and has some very slick grappling with very nice natural smooth looking takedowns. In her last fight she had 3 takedowns against Meixco’s National Champion in wrestling. Her opponent Denise Gomes is your typical bully style puncher and grappler (strong/low tech), but overall I’m not really impressed with her grappling and I think Eduarda surges here. Most of my analysis for this one was watching their last fights and I feel good about this one and have a decent sized bet on Eduarda.
Parlay Play: Eduarda Moura, Brunno Ferreira, Ludovit Klein (+278)
I think there is good value on this Parlay, Brunno and Eduarda should steamroll with ease as they have fantastic matchups that are perfect for their strengths. The trickiest fight is without a doubt Klein Vs Thiago Moises, Klein will be by far the better striker and Moises should have the grappling edge. And usually I lean grappler in this scenario but Klein has shown decent takedown defense with an 83% takedown defense.
Draftkings Cash Tournament
In this Peer Vs Peer style of betting, we will look to outperform our peers by building a lineup of winning fighters who score well while not going over the pseudo $50k Salary cap. Think of this as GM mode for MMA betting.
We also want to target fights that are 5 rounds, and fighters with grapple dominant styles as these will score very well for us. Below is two lineups I have submitted, feel free to copy these or build your own.
This style of betting is also great if you live in a state where regular sports gambling isn’t fully legal yet.
New Users:
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/r/sb/LetsDegen/US-AZ-SB
I actually feel extremely confident in this lineup to turn a profit and potentially win the whole thing. Feel free to copy this entry and use it in the vast range of tournaments available. All the favorites we took should win by finish, and the two underdogs we took have high outputs offensively and also could win outright.
These are cool, I see people in the various communities I’m involved in winning the grand prize all the time, and with such a small barrier to entry I think it’s a fun and potentially effective way to approach the MMA markets.
I don’t have a DFS lineup set yet, like I said this card feels tricky and even other MMA handicappers said this card is loaded with landmines, I’ll probably throw something small together in this Discord tomorrow morning.
That’s all for now, have a great Friday and weekend.
🍻