Week 16 NFL Picks
The Home Stretch
Welcome back,
I’m not gonna lie — it’s late Saturday night and I am pretty hammered, but I really wanted to get this out. It may be shorter than usual, but I love our spots this week.
Our Thursday Night Bet was spot on — congrats if you tailed.
Let’s get to it.
Week 16 Sunday
Best Bet: Player Matchup Parlay (+115 Caesars)
Joe Burrow Over Quinn Ewers Passing Yards
Amon St. Brown Over DK Metcalf Receiving Yards
Risk 2u to win 2.30u
Despite Quinn having the much better defensive matchup, we aren’t taking a rookie in his first career start over the league’s gold standard elite quarterback. No chance.
Amon-Ra has the much better matchup and usually receives double the amount of targets of DK.
Quinshon Judkins Over 13.5 Longest Rush (-121 Caesars)
Risk 1u to win 1.79u
He is a monster. And while he hasn’t been the most efficient with his ample workload, he gets the best matchup this week against the Buffalo Bills, who can’t stop the run. They rank 31/32 in rushing yards per attempt. I think a big gash is so overdue.
Andrew Wingard Over 5.5 Tackles & Assists (-115 Draftkings)
Risk 1u to win 1.85u
People only remember Josh Allen from Wyoming. But Andrew Wingard has been quietly holding it down as a great safety in the NFL, very underrated.
6 TAs is a number he clears frequently, and he gets one of the league’s best safety and cornerback matchups in the Denver Broncos this week.
The Broncos are undeniably clutch and convert 3rd and 4th down after 3rd and 4th down over and over again. This will generate more tackle opportunities in addition to how the Broncos play and target the field anyway.
1776 Longshot Parlay (+1776 Caesars)
Risk .5u to win 8.88u
Mason has the better matchup and volume. John Metchie slips down the depth chart. Egbuka is better than Coker, who is good but benefits from recency bias. Goff has a huge matchup edge. Will Anderson and Danielle might get a few sacks each against this defeated Raiders offense.
Underdog
Underdog is offering holiday promos, I like this slip.
They all have great matchups.
Have a great Sunday!